Controversial NT golden shale well Amungee – doesn’t stack up economically: IEEFA

Commenting on a new report that Origin Energy erased all evidence of a frack well casing deformation in a submission to the NT Fracking Inquiry, Bruce Robertson, Gas/LNG Australasia analyst, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial said:

“Apart from the very serious allegation that the Northern Territory Government and fracking Inquiry are implicated in a cover up by Origin, the hype of the Amungee well, in the Beetaloo basin does not match its economic reality.

“While Origin’s Amungee well is being touted as the golden child of shale wells, flow rates of gas are a fraction of those in the early US discoveries of shale gas in the Marcellus Shales[1].

“The claims by the industry that the Beetaloo basin will save the East Coast gas market are built on hope not on drilling results.  It is far too early to declare a major gas province from the small number of wells drilled and the disappointing results from those that have been.

“The Beetaloo is a remote gas province and piping costs to market are prohibitive.  Nearly all reputable commentators including Wood MacKenzie rate the Beetaloo a high cost field.

“The likelihood of development of a major onshore gas industry in the Northern Territory is low[2] due to the high cost of the gas, and prohibitive piping costs to market, in a low cost gas world.

“Pricing for long term gas contracts has fallen gain by around 20%. This runs counter to the narrative from the gas industry that the gas glut has past[3].

“With ever more production coming on stream between now and 2022 the global gas glut has not disappeared and pressure on global pricing in the medium term remains.

“The fact that Origin did not follow best practice and fracked too near a fault line resulting in deformation is lamentable and does not bode well for future activities in the Northern Territory.


[1] See page 21 for 2008 Shale production curves from the USA. See page 63  for current Marcellus production profiles

[2] Page 46


HoldfastControversial NT golden shale well Amungee – doesn’t stack up economically: IEEFA